Download Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer by James Shinn PDF

By James Shinn

ISBN-10: 0833058266

ISBN-13: 9780833058263

The target of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan has been firmly embraced by means of lots of the strength events to a treaty. notwithstanding, arriving at an contract in regards to the sequencing, timing, and prioritization of peace phrases could be tough, given the divergence within the events' pursuits and pursuits. The U.S. goal

in those negotiations can be a good and peaceable Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with terrorists.

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Spoiler groups from among the local leadership of the Taliban at the district and provincial levels inside Afghanistan could also emerge to challenge an accord and to defy Mullah Omar’s authority if an accord, in their view, seemed to have sold out the Taliban’s core values or seemed in some way to threaten their local power base. Finally, east of the Durand Line, the Pakistani Taliban could “declare war” on any accord that imposed terms that it considered threatening, as could Al Qaeda. Since the terms of any plausible peace accord would explicitly isolate both the TTP and Al Qaeda, a campaign of intimidation, kidnapping, and murder by these two groups targeting both the Kabul government and the Quetta Shura during the negotiation and implementation of a peace accord is virtually certain.

President Karzai’s government enjoys a 62 percent approval rating, and he personally is viewed positively by 82 percent of his compatriots. 7 Eight in ten Afghans express confidence in the Afghan National Army, and only a slightly lower number express confidence in their national police force. 8 It is not difficult to explain Afghan optimism. Since 2001, the country’s gross domestic product has tripled. Ten years ago, there were fewer than 1 million children in school—almost all boys. In fall 2011, more than 8 million children will attend school—one-third of them 6 CBS News/New York Times Poll, June 2011.

The military in Pakistan and the ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard in Iran are capable of ruthless, focused pursuit of their respective goals in Afghanistan, even though their governments, on the whole, are incoherent and badly divided. Low coherence is not good news for the prospects of an accord. Incoherent actors are difficult and unreliable counterparties in any negotiation. The actors may change course in midstream, their terms are likely to shift and be retraded, and their commitment to implementation is always suspect.

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